Inventory Management and Demand Forecasting Improvement of a Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend. Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century. As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day, companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits. Excessive inventory (overstock) and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers. Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory. Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage, insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product. Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store. If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves, they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items. Demand forecasting is valuable for planning, scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities. This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting. Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast

A Study on an Extensive Hierarchical Model for Demand Forecasting of Automobile Components

Demand forecasting and big data analytics in supply chain management are gaining interest. This is attributed to the wide range of big data analytics in supply chain management, in addition to demand forecasting, and behavioral analysis. In this article, we studied the application of big data analytics forecasting in supply chain demand forecasting in the automotive parts industry to propose classifications of these applications, identify gaps, and provide ideas for future research. Algorithms will then be classified and then applied in supply chain management such as neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, time series forecasting, clustering, regression analysis, support vector regression and support vector machines. An extensive hierarchical model for short-term auto parts demand assessment was employed to avoid the shortcomings of the earlier models and to close the gap that regarded mainly a single time series. The concept of extensive relevance assessment was proposed, and subsequently methods to reflect the relevance of automotive demand factors were discussed. Using a wide range of skills, the factors and cofactors are expressed in the form of a correlation characteristic matrix to ensure the degree of influence of each factor on the demand for automotive components. Then, it is compared with the existing data and predicted the short-term historical data. The result proved the predictive error is less than 6%, which supports the validity of the prediction method. This research offers the basis for the macroeconomic regulation of the government and the production of auto parts manufacturers

Research on the Comparison between the Different Policies by Service Level and Inventory Level Performance of Auto Parts in N.A.C.C. (North Automobile Components Company)

As after sales services become more and more popular, particularly preventive or corrective maintenance, the intervention and repair of the customer’s goods in a timely and efficient manner ensure customer satisfaction and contribute to the establishment of brand image in the market of the suppliers. The availability and quality of spare parts are key elements of this strategy while ensuring minimal management costs. The reuse of spare parts retrieved from customer systems is a growing maintenance strategy practice which impacts the traditional spare parts supply chain. This reuse is primarily driven by extending the economic life of goods, initially regarded as waste and therefore without added value, by transforming them into valuable spare parts that can be reused; secondly, for environmental or regulatory reasons, demanding responsibility for the treatment of products at the end of their life; and thirdly, to improve the availability of parts for maintenance, especially parts that the organization can no longer purchase or that are impacted by other issues. It also involves the analysis of their condition and their eventual return to working order as they are retrieved from the customer’s systems in a defective condition. In this paper, we will identify and classify the different customers and spare parts by estimating the critical level of rationing policy based on forecasts, identify the thresholds of inventory management policies, and finally, compare the different policies by service level and inventory level performance for the N.A.C.C. company

Study on Customer Demand Forecasting Models, Stock Management, Classification and Policies for Automobile Parts Manufacturing Company N.A.C.C. (An Advance on Classical Models)

The primary intent of the current research is to provide insights regarding the management of spare parts within the supply chain, in conjunction with offering some methods for enhancing forecasting and inventory management. In particular, to use classical forecasting methods, the use of weak and unstable demand is not recommended. Furthermore, statistical performance measures are not involved in this particular context. Furthermore, it is expected that maintenance contracts will be aligned with different levels. In addition to the examination of some literature reviews, some tools will guide us through this process. The article proposes new performance analysis methods that will help integrate inventory management and statistical performance while considering decision maker priorities through the use of different methodologies and parts age segmentation. The study will also identify critical level policies by comparing different types of spenders according to the inventory management model, also with separate and common inventory policies. Each process of the study is combined with a comparative analysis of different forecasting methods and inventory management models based on N.A.C.C. parts supply chain data, allowing us to identify a set of methodologies and parameter recommendations based on parts segmentation and supply chain prioritization

GENERAL PARALYSIS IN A TROPICAL COUNTRY. STUDY OF 43 OBSERVATIONS

PARALYSIE GÉNÉRALE EN MILIEU TROPICAL. ÉTUDE DE 43 OBSERVATIONS RESUME Description :Les auteurs rapportent une étude de 43 cas de paralysie générale, révélés par un syndrome démentiel et des formes atypiques notamment les troubles confusionnels répétitifs et des crises épileptiformes. Objectif : L'objectif de cette étude est de réévaluer cette pathologie du point de vue clinique et paraclinique en milieu tropical. Méthode : Il s'agit d'une étude prospective. Le diagnostic a reposé sur la positivité des réactions sérologiques ( VDRL-TPHA) dans le sang et le liquide céphalo-rachidien, la présence d'une hypercellularité à prédominance lymphocytaire et d'une hyperprotéinorachie. Resultats : Les troubles cognitifs et moteurs, les états confusionnels répétitifs et les crises épileptiques constituent les formes cliniques dominantes de début. Chez tous les patients, le scanner a mis en évidence une discrète dilatation ventriculaire diffuse et un élargissement des sillons de la convexité. Le tracé électroencéphalographique était anormal dans près de 67% des cas. SUMMARY Description : The authors report a study of 43 cases of general paralysis revealed by some mental disorders and atypical forms notably repeater confessional disorders and some seizure-like attacks. Objective : The goal of this study is to revalue this pathology from the clinical and paraclinic point of view in tropical medium. Method : In this prospective study, the diagnosis was based on the serologic tests (VDRL-TPHA) in the blood and the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF); CSF cell count with lymphocyte predominance ; protein level in the fluid. Result : The diagnosis was based on the serologic tests (VDRL-TPHA) in the blood and the cerebrospinal fluid(CSF); high CSF cell count with lymphocyte predominance; high protein level in the fluid. The cogniture and motor troubles, the repeated confusion status and the epileptic seizures constitute the dominant clinical forms of the onset. In all the patients, the CT-scan revealed discrete diffuse ventricular dilation and widening of the grooves of the convexity. The electroencephalographic traces were abnormal in 67% of the cases. Key Words: Afrique, Guinée, paralysie générale, syphilis nerveuse, Africa, Guinea, general paralysis, neurosyphilis African Journal of Neurological Sciences Vol.23(2) 200